Edge of Chaos diagnoses the perils
of liberal democracy, the once greatest engine of growth, and the challenges it
is facing in delivering its imperative mandate, Economic Growth.
This is my first read of Dr. Moyo’s
writings and she shares a contrarian and insightful thinking in the economic tensions
and complexities of the contemporary world. Though she holds a Doctorate in
Economics from Oxford and not in Politics, as she aptly put in the beginning of
the book, she believes that the latter is the key driver for growth and
prosperity of the human race.
Replete with statistics, history
and research covered in eight chapters of the 269-page book, global themes cutting
across international affairs like inequality, globalization, trade and
sustainable development were of great interest to me. Well, there is more you
can get from the challenges to democracy presented as the Hurricane Headwinds to the economic development. However, the underscoring
point to take home is that the economic choices are at the core of politics.
I couldn't help relating the book
directly to the current Kenya political and economic situation. The debt crisis.
Infrastructure challenges. Unemployment and income inequality. Case in point, an extensive research of over
200 years by Harvard University professors titled Growth in a Time of Debt. The research says, “When external debt
reaches 60 percent of the GDP, annual growth declines by about two percent.” This
book was published one year before the IMF estimated the Kenyan Public Debt to
GDP ratio as 59.9% (significantly above the 50% cap Kenya had set for itself)
and followed by cutting the economic-growth forecast by 0.2% late last year, according to Bloomberg. With the peculiarity of the Kenyan politician, the government
approved to plan to present the debt limit in absolute figures instead of a percentage
of the gross domestic product. The National Treasury proposed a limit of 9
Trillion shillings. That is USD86 Billion, almost the size of the entire Kenyan
economy. Indeed no human is limited.
A scrutiny in sustainable development
demands a check in at least the quality of education, income inequality, and
total factor productivity. Subtle but significant shifts from what was the
economic powerhouse has limited democracy in delivering such in three ways:
One, the changes in the economic ideologies from largely state centric to a
more laissez faire capitalism. Two, the rise of 24-hour news cycle as well as
the advent of social media and, three, power shifting away from the state towards
non-state actors such as corporations and wealthy philanthropists that are
taking the role of the governments, thus weakening the state in the process. Churning
of ill-equipped work force to the economy has nothing to do with the academia
but everything to do with the government’s policy and its interest in education. It
is this outsourcing and privatizing of core responsibilities like health,
education and policing by the government to the wealthy private sector that has
us on fast reverse at the edge of the precipice.
We have embodied in education,
business and the democratic political system a predilection for short termism. A
myopia that is detrimental to the economic success. In The Perils of Political Myopia, my favourite chapter, it is clear
that the politicians are rewarded for pandering to voters' immediate demands and
desires to the detriment of growth over the long term. To this thought, I see
where Competency-Based Curriculum and BBI falls. Incitement of the public by
politicians to demand for necessities like proper roads. I also see the betting
companies promised ‘better’ terms a few months to the general election.
Only 41% of the general population trusts
the government, a 2017 Edelman Trust Survey says. People are more skeptical of
the ability of the democratic governments to act effectively as citizens in
emerging markets see authoritarian leaders as more trustworthy than democratic
politicians. Among the 10 solutions that Dr. Moyo suggest as The Blue Print for New Democracy,
encouraging election of non-career politicians – those who have a sound working
experience in non-political fields, making voting mandatory and a focused voter
education. Voters are ultimately responsible for the politicians they elect (by
voting or not voting) and the economic policies those politicians make.
To me this is a great blueprint. A
sign of a gathering storm. How growth in the 21st century is interconnected
globally. She states, “America’s unsteady economy helped catapult Trump into the
US presidency…The growing economic and political uncertainty across the globe
is today being amplified as much by the Trump administration’s foreign policy
choices as it is by America’s economic fortune. A more isolationist America creates a vacuum
at a time when the European Union has grown precarious, facing escalating
extremism among the anti-Europe leftwing and the rightwing populist parties in
the disintegration of the Eurozone. An aggressive Russia, fractious Middle
East, rising terrorism spawned by religion and the risk of expanding nuclear
and cyberwarfare capacities, all threaten to worsen as the United States ceases
to serve as the stabilizing force.
Virtually every region around the world is vulnerable to security risks
because of the economic situation of the United States.” I would not agree
more.
You will find the research
findings inhere interesting, you may want to poke holes in some of them, but
the measured judgement with which she present the ideas are also interesting
and thought provoking. As an exciting read and the first book to finish and
review (my first review 😊) in 2020, I rate
Edge of Chaos a 4/5 star. Just because I believe there is more to come, more to
explore, more to discover.
